Many North American sports bettors take the summer off but that can be a mistake. Baseball betting offers one of the best opportunities for profit of any sport. One of the great things about baseball betting is the large quantity of betting opportunities. With each team playing 162 games a year there are a mind boggling number of betting propositions every season.
Just considering the basic MLB odds which include sides and total plays for every game, there’s almost 5,000 betting opportunities over the course of the MLB season. That number doesn’t include the many other MLB lines posted by sportsbooks including runline plays, series wagers (which are offered by a growing number of books), futures bets, over/under season win totals, etc.
The overwhelming majority of profitable sports bettors are “grinders”—they focus more on grinding out small profits that add up over the long term rather than trying to make a big killing. There are exceptions, of course, but this is the way that most serious professionals approach sports wagering. Baseball is the best sport for grinding out the small profits day in and day out, week after week. Part of this is the nature of MLB lines—they are based on moneyline odds.
Also important is the enormous amount of wagering opportunities, and the fact that you can turn a profit while winning less than 50% of your bets by betting on the underdogs. If you consider that even the best teams will lose over a third of their games, and also that the worst teams will win more than a third of their games, it’s obvious that there’s going to be a lot opportunities to find value if you are a good baseball handicapper.
For many baseball bettors betting underdogs at ‘plus money’ MLB lines can be a successful strategy. As I said above, the best teams will lose at least 60 games during the season and the worst teams win about 60 games as well. These teams would have to win or lose over 102 games in order to miss that mark, which no team did this season. The rest of the league falls between these two numbers. If you are going to bet on more favorite baseball lines, your breakeven percentage will have to be well over 50% in order to make money.
Another important concept to remember is the relative unimportance of home field advantage. Of all major sports, there may be less intrinsic advantage to playing at home in baseball than in any other yet linesmakers always factor home field advantage into MLB odds. This is particularly true during the regular season. Granted there are teams that do better in certain ballparks than others, but this is more a function of the design of the ballpark and the personnel of the team than any sort of “home field advantage”.
Where to Find the Best Lines and Odds
One of the best sources for sports betting lines is Bodog.eu. This site caters heavily towards Canadian gamblers, such as this NFL betting Canada page. They also have current baseball odds for World Series. Bodog also has a sister site that caters to Americans called Bovada.lv which has identical lines and odds.
This season, the Kansas City Royals have surprised everyone by sweeping their way from the Wild Card game against Oakland, through our beloved Angels, and all the way to the World Series. Will they be able to take out the 2-time World Series Champion San Francisco Giants? Stay tuned to the World Series and find out.